Geo-Political Outlook: Conflict and Cooperation in 2026 — What to Watch

Lead: Geopolitical dynamics in 2026 will continue to influence economic and corporate strategies. This brief identifies the major fault lines and cooperation opportunities that might materialize.

Main geopolitical themes

Expect a mix of strategic competition and selective cooperation. Key themes include technological competition, energy security, and trade agreements that reflect regional blocs rather than global multilateralism.

Technology and trade tensions

Competition over semiconductor supply chains and critical technology standards remains intense. Countries will pursue industrial policies to secure domestic capabilities, producing both investment opportunities and trade frictions.

Energy and resource security

Energy geopolitics remain central. Nations that control critical minerals and energy transit routes will gain leverage. This can lead to strategic alliances for resource flows and investment, but also increased rivalry in resource-rich regions.

Areas of potential cooperation

• Climate diplomacy leading to coordinated investment in cross-border grid projects and carbon markets.
• Public health collaboration improving pandemic preparedness infrastructure.
• Regional trade arrangements that pragmatically address supply chain resilience.

Implications for businesses

Multinationals must navigate regulatory divergence and potential restrictions on data flows and tech transfers. Building regional supply chains and complying with multiple regulatory regimes will be more common. Geopolitical scenario planning should be incorporated into corporate risk frameworks.

Policy watchers' checklist

• Track export control developments and their impact on technology sourcing.
• Monitor sanctions regimes and their indirect sectoral effects.
• Observe regional trade negotiations for new partnership opportunities.

Geopolitics in 2026 will be characterized by pragmatic partnerships amidst competition. Businesses that factor multiple geopolitical scenarios into strategy will be better prepared for shocks.

Conclusion

While geopolitical competition persists, cooperation pockets provide pathways for investment and collaboration. Strategic foresight and diversified supply chain design are essential for resilience in the face of uncertainty.