Travel Stocks to Buy If a Strong Economy Boosts 2026 Tourism

If a surprisingly strong economy fuels a 2026 travel boom, which travel stocks and ETFs should investors own?

Hook: You need concise, data-driven trade ideas — not more debate. With late-2025 macro data showing unexpected resilience and Skift Megatrends 2026 outlining where travel budgets will flow, this piece synthesizes both to deliver a ranked list of stocks and ETFs, practical entry rules, and a clear risk-management framework to capture a potential spike in tourism and hospitality demand in 2026.

Executive summary — the thesis in one paragraph

Late 2025 and early 2026 macro readings signaled stronger-than-expected consumer spending on services and a resilient labor market, creating fertile conditions for a travel upswing. Skift Megatrends 2026 highlights rebounds in business travel, premiumization of leisure travel, sustained growth in alternative lodging, and accelerating travel technology adoption. Combine those structural drivers with the macro backdrop and you get a pragmatic playbook: use ETFs for core exposure, target market leaders in hotels and online travel agencies (OTAs) for secular capture, add airlines selectively for cyclical leverage, and use hotel REITs and resorts for income plus upside. Below are ranked ideas, concrete allocation templates, and actionable triggers for 2026.

Why the timing matters — macro signals and Skift themes

Start with two inputs:

• Macro momentum: Through late 2025 policymakers and markets observed stubborn inflation yet unexpectedly strong household consumption and services spending. Employment and wage momentum supported travel budgets even as goods spending normalized — a classic setup for travel outperformance in 2026.
• Skift Megatrends 2026 takeaways: industry leaders attending Megatrends flagged five investment-relevant themes: the return of business travel (higher-margin demand), premiumization and ancillary upsell (cabin and room upgrades), alternative and longer-stay lodging, travel-tech consolidation and platform power, and sustainability-driven product differentiation. These trends suggest where revenues and margins will expand first.

Skift: Megatrends provides the industry’s shared baseline heading into budgets and strategy decisions for 2026 — exactly where investors should focus.

How to think about exposure: core vs. satellite

Use a core-satellite approach to balance diversification and upside capture:

• Core (ETFs): broad travel or leisure ETFs that provide sector beta and lower idiosyncratic risk. Suitable for 40–60% of a travel-specific sleeve.
• Satellite (individual stocks): high-conviction picks in OTAs, branded hotels, premium airlines, resorts/casinos, and travel tech. These drive outperformance if 2026 demand surprises to the upside.
• Income/defensive sleeve (REITs & select names): hotel REITs and diversified resort operators that yield cash flow and can rally on better RevPAR and ADR trends.

ETF ideas for the core

Choose ETFs to capture broad travel and leisure upside, and to hedge single-name risk.

• JETS — U.S. Global Jets ETF: Pure-play airline exposure; high beta to passenger demand. Use as a tactical overweight if early 2026 data confirms summer demand growth.
• AWAY — ETFMG Travel Tech ETF: A basket approach to travel technology and distribution, including booking and ancillary platforms. Useful to capture secular digitalization highlighted at Skift and related travel-tech coverage.
• PEJ — Invesco Dynamic Leisure & Entertainment ETF: Broader exposure to leisure, entertainment, and travel-adjacent consumer names; good core holding if you want diversification beyond airlines/hotels.
• XLY / VCR — Consumer discretionary sector ETFs: Not travel-specific but provide exposure to demand for discretionary services, helpful as a macro hedge/confirmation tool.

High-conviction stock ideas and the Skift link

The list below ranks names by how closely their business models align with Skift’s 2026 megatrends and the macro upswing. Tickers are included and each pick includes the tactical trigger that would prompt a buy.

1) Booking Holdings (BKNG) — distribution & pricing power

Why it fits: Booking is the dominant global OTA with pricing algorithms and a wide property base. Skift emphasizes distribution and data — Booking monetizes both through higher take rates and dynamic pricing. Strong consumer travel budgets and international travel reopening amplify bookings.

What to watch: gross bookings growth, take-rate expansion, international mix recovery, and margin improvement from advertising and metasearch. Buy trigger: consecutive quarterly beats in bookings with raised guidance for Summer 2026.

2) Airbnb (ABNB) — alternative lodging & longer stays

Why it fits: Alternative lodging and longer-stay trends are core to Skift’s narrative. Airbnb is well positioned to capture premium leisure and work-from-anywhere demand plus flexible longer-term stays — higher margins and platform monetization improve with scale.

What to watch: nights booked growth, average daily rates for long stays, and successful upsell products (experiences). Buy trigger: durable YoY nights growth >10% heading into summer and improved host supply metrics.

3) Marriott International (MAR) / Hilton (HLT) — branded hotels & group travel

Why it fits: Branded hotels capture the benefits of rising ADR and RevPAR during leisure rebounds and business travel return. Skift notes a resumption of corporate travel; Marriott and Hilton have best-in-class loyalty programs and meeting space footprints.

What to watch: RevPAR recovery vs. pre-pandemic levels, global group/bookings and convention trends, loyalty program engagement metrics. Buy trigger: sequential RevPAR acceleration and conference/group booking lift for H2 2026.

4) Delta Air Lines (DAL) — premium cabins, network advantage

Why it fits: Airlines with strong premium product exposure and diversified international networks will benefit most from premiumization of travel. Delta often trades at a premium for its service and capacity discipline.

What to watch: unit revenue (PRASM), corporate bookings, and capacity guidance. Buy trigger: management upgrades to PRASM and corporate mix in forward bookings for Q3-Q4 2026.

5) Expedia Group (EXPE) — metasearch & package resilience

Why it fits: Expedia benefits from package bookings and better margin mix when travel demand is robust. As Skift highlights distribution consolidation, Expedia’s cross-brand flow is a strength.

What to watch: package mix growth and margin expansion; improved international metrics. Buy trigger: better-than-expected margin recovery on packages and raised guidance.

6) Las Vegas Sands (LVS) & MGM Resorts (MGM) — integrated resorts and event-driven upside

Why it fits: Large integrated resorts benefit from convention recovery and high-margin gaming spend. Skift’s emphasis on experiences and events favors operators with convention center inventory and premium amenities.

What to watch: convention bookings, VIP gaming trends, and international visitation (Macau for LVS). These names are also exposed to micro-events and event-driven demand that can compress or expand seasonality. Buy trigger: calendar shows fill-in for major Q3-Q4 events and group bookings ramp stronger than expected.

7) Royal Caribbean (RCL) / Carnival (CCL) — cruise cycle leverage

Why it fits: Cruises offer outsized margins on full-bookings and ancillary spend. If macro holds and consumer confidence stays elevated into 2026, cruises capture delayed pent-up demand, especially in premium itineraries.

What to watch: ticket pricing and onboard spend per passenger. Buy trigger: sustained pricing improvements for 2026 itineraries and healthy booking curves.

8) Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) / Park Hotels & Resorts (PK) — hotel REIT income play

Why it fits: REITs provide yield and will re-rate if RevPAR and ADR improve. They are a way to capture lodging upside while receiving cash flow — valuable if rates remain stable.

What to watch: quarterly FFO and occupancy/RevPAR beats. Buy trigger: FFO upgrades or sustained RevPAR acceleration and tightening availability in top urban markets.

Concrete allocation templates (for a travel sleeve)

Below are two sample allocations depending on risk tolerance and time horizon. These are examples — adjust to your portfolio size, risk profile, and tax situation.

Conservative travel sleeve (for income + modest upside, 12–24 month horizon)

• 40% ETFs (PEJ or XLY)
• 25% Hotel REITs (HST, PK)
• 20% Branded hotels / OTAs (MAR, HLT, BKNG)
• 10% Resorts/casinos (MGM / LVS)
• 5% Cash / options for tactical entries

Aggressive travel sleeve (for alpha and cyclical upside, 6–18 months)

• 30% ETFs (JETS, AWAY)
• 30% Airlines & cruises (DAL, RCL, CCL)
• 20% OTAs & travel tech (BKNG, EXPE, ABNB)
• 10% Resorts & premium hotels (MAR, HLT, WYNN)
• 10% Cash / short-dated hedges

Actionable entry and exit rules

Use data-driven triggers rather than emotion. Here are rules you can implement:

• Entry rule A — Confirmation of demand: Buy core ETF exposure after two consecutive monthly travel-data prints show YoY expansion in air traffic, hotel occupancy, or OTA gross bookings.
• Entry rule B — Earnings confirmation: Add to individual names on an earnings beat where management raises guidance for the next two quarters or cites stronger-than-expected group or corporate bookings.
• Scaling technique: Dollar-cost average into high-volatility names (airlines, cruises) over 4–6 weeks to avoid single-day news moves.
• Exit trigger: Reduce exposure if consumer confidence, unemployment, or two consecutive months of declining RevPAR or airline load factors point to a genuine slowdown.
• Hedging: Hedge airline risk with jet-fuel ETFs or short-duration energy exposure if crude oil breaks materially higher; hedge hotel/reit interest-rate sensitivity with short-duration bond positions.

Key performance indicators (KPIs) to track weekly/monthly

Follow these KPIs to validate the trade thesis:

• Airline bookings curve and forward load factors — leading indicator for Q3/Q4 travel.
• OTA gross bookings and ADR — platform demand and pricing power.
• Hotel RevPAR and occupancy — direct earnings driver for hotel chains and REITs.
• Group/convention bookings — signal for premium business travel recovery; track convention calendars and local demand drivers highlighted in pieces like event-to-anchor playbooks.
• Consumer confidence and services PCE — macro confirmation of sustained discretionary spending.

Risks and failure modes

No trade is without risk. The main downsides to the travel-upside thesis:

• Macro downside: A sharper-than-expected slowdown in consumption or a deterioration in the labor market could rapidly compress travel demand.
• Fuel and input costs: Rising jet fuel or energy costs can compress airline and cruise margins.
• Geopolitical shocks or health scares: Renewed travel controls would immediately depress bookings.
• Interest rate pressure: Rising long-term rates squeeze REIT valuations and cap rates for hotel assets.
• Idiosyncratic management risk: Execution missteps at OTAs or resort operators could blunt earnings even if demand is strong.

Case studies: how similar recoveries played out

Two historical lessons inform the playbook:

• Post-2010 recovery: Airlines and hotels that disciplined capacity and invested in premium products captured outsized profit share as demand normalized. Names that raised fares before competitors—typically the network carriers and branded hotels—recovered faster.
• 2022–23 post-pandemic rebound: OTAs and platforms that controlled pricing leverage (and provided cancellation flexibility) gained share rapidly. Companies that monetized ancillary services recovered margin faster than pure-volume plays — a dynamic examined in vendor and dynamic-pricing playbooks like TradeBaze's vendor playbook.

Practical checklist before you buy

1. Confirm macro: services spending and employment momentum remain intact for at least two successive data releases.
2. Validate sector telemetry: airline forward bookings, hotel RevPAR, or OTA bookings show sequential improvement.
3. Check valuation context: compare target’s forward multiples to historical averages and peers; prioritize companies with pricing power and balance-sheet flexibility.
4. Set stop-loss and position sizing rules aligned to overall portfolio risk: no single travel name should exceed 5% of a diversified portfolio unless your risk tolerance explicitly allows it.
5. Document the trade trigger and exit rules before entering — disciplined trade management beats guesswork.

Monitoring the Skift signals

Skift Megatrends 2026 is not just a conference; it’s a sentiment and strategy pulse-check for executives and budgets. Watch for three cues from Skift coverage and executive commentary:

• Executives publicly moving budgets from marketing to distribution or loyalty — signals of monetization plans.
• Conference anecdotes about group/convention booking horizons tightening — early evidence of business travel recovery.
• Tech investment announcements — increased capex in travel tech often precedes revenue gains via better pricing and ancillary capture; keep an eye on immersive pre-trip and distribution plays covered in the travel-tech brief at Immersive Pre-Trip Content.

Sample watchlist with tactical notes

• BKNG: Buy on durable bookings growth and take-rate expansion.
• ABNB: Buy on nights-booked momentum and margin improvements for long stays; see short-term rental and edge-ready rental plays like edge-ready short-term rentals.
• MAR / HLT: Buy on RevPAR beats and group booking acceleration.
• DAL: Buy on PRASM upgrade and corporate travel pickup.
• JETS: Use tactical overweight if airline forward curves show load factor improvement and fuel stabilizes.
• HST / PK: Rotate into on RevPAR strength and FFO upgrades.

Final actionable takeaways

• Use ETFs for your core exposure — they reduce idiosyncratic risk while giving you sector upside if the 2026 travel rebound materializes.
• Target OTAs and branded hotels for secular exposure — they combine distribution leverage with pricing power highlighted by Skift trends and vendor playbooks like TradeBaze.
• Buy airlines and cruises selectively — these are high-beta ways to amplify a confirmed demand surprise, but size positions conservatively.
• Monitor a short set of KPIs weekly — forward bookings and RevPAR are your early-warning and confirmation indicators; also watch micro-event calendars and local demand signals (see micro-event coverage at How Micro-Events Reshape Demand).
• Set disciplined entry/exit rules — buy on data confirmation and trim on consecutive negative macro or sector prints.

Call-to-action

If you want a ready-to-execute model portfolio tied to the 2026 travel thesis — including buy ranges, stop levels, and a watchlist update schedule — subscribe to our Market Outlooks & Forecasts newsletter or download the 2026 Travel Alpha Model (free for the first month). Join the conversation at Skift Megatrends coverage and use the data-focused signals above to convert headlines into disciplined trades.

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